Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Florida Panthers predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
Florida Panthers to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit Red WingsFlorida Panthers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -180
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +146 -178
Hard Rock Bet +140 -170
Novig +153 -156
Caesars +149 -176

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Panthers −1.5
priced 39.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 54.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book Red WingsPanthers
BetMGM +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -177 −1.5 +143
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
ESPN BET +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -176 −1.5 +142
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Caesars +1.5 -179 −1.5 +149
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -137 5.5 +110
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 5.5 -135 5.5 +115
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -134 5.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -108 6 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit Red WingsFlorida Panthers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.5% 60.9%
Kalshi contract price 39.1% 60.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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