Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils

All Washington Capitals predictions · All New Jersey Devils predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devils
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +135 -162
DraftKings +124 -148
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +128 -154
Hard Rock Bet +125 -145
Novig +133 -135
Caesars +131 -154

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Devils −1.5
priced 36.2% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 45.6% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Spread by book CapitalsDevils
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +155
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Fanatics +1.5 -205 −1.5 +165
FanDuel +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Caesars +1.5 -200 −1.5 +166
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 6.5 +108 6.5 -134
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 6.5 +115 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 5.5 -140 5.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -113 6 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devils
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 41.9% 58.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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