Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All Chicago Blackhawks predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM

The model's call
Buffalo Sabres to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Buffalo SabresChicago Blackhawks
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -159 +133
DraftKings -148 +124
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -152 +126
Hard Rock Bet -140 +120
Novig -141 +135
Caesars -148 +125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Sabres −1.5
priced 36.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 49.3% over · 8 books
Spread by book SabresBlackhawks
BetMGM −1.5 +154 +1.5 -190
BetRivers −1.5 +155 +1.5 -195
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +165 +1.5 -205
FanDuel −1.5 +164 +1.5 -205
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Caesars −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -110 6.5 -113
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -104 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Buffalo SabresChicago Blackhawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.5% 42.5%
Best book price incl. vig 58.3% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 57.9% 42.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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