Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth

All St Louis Blues predictions · All Utah Mammoth predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 9:00 PM

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book St Louis BluesUtah Mammoth
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +102 -122
DraftKings +114 -135
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +102 -122
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Novig +120 -125
Caesars +115 -136

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Mammoth −1.5
priced 33.9% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book BluesMammoth
BetMGM +1.5 -220 −1.5 +180
BetRivers +1.5 -265 −1.5 +205
DraftKings +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
ESPN BET +1.5 -235 −1.5 +180
Fanatics +1.5 -225 −1.5 +180
FanDuel +1.5 -245 −1.5 +194
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Caesars +1.5 -218 −1.5 +183
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +112 6.5 -138
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 +104 6.5 -127

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue St Louis BluesUtah Mammoth
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.0%
Kalshi contract price 45.2% 54.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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