Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings

All New York Islanders predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 10:00 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York IslandersLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +100 -118
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +104 -125
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Novig +115 -117
Caesars +108 -127

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Kings −1.5
priced 32.7% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 5.5
priced 54.3% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book IslandersKings
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -278 −1.5 +215
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +185
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -250 −1.5 +198
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Caesars +1.5 -235 −1.5 +194
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -117 5.5 -107
DraftKings 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -140 5.5 +112
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -102 6 -121

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York IslandersLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 53.9%
Kalshi contract price 46.2% 53.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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