Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns

All Charlotte Hornets predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 9:10 PM

The model's call
Phoenix Suns to win
Model confidence 68.4%
Books consensus 68.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Charlotte HornetsPhoenix Suns
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +190 -245
DraftKings +202 -245
ESPN BET +200 -240
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +205 -250
Novig +223 -228
Caesars +205 -250

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Suns −6.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 5 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 213.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book HornetsSuns
BetMGM +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
BetRivers +6.5 -113 −6.5 -109
DraftKings +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
ESPN BET +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Fanatics +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
FanDuel +6.5 -106 −6.5 -114
Caesars +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 213.5 -110 213.5 -110
BetRivers 213.5 -110 213.5 -112
DraftKings 213.5 -110 213.5 -110
ESPN BET 213.5 -110 213.5 -110
Fanatics 214 -110 214 -110
FanDuel 213.5 -105 213.5 -115
Caesars 214 -110 214 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Charlotte HornetsPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 31.6% 68.4%
Best book price incl. vig 31.0% 69.5%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record