Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards

All Detroit Pistons predictions · All Washington Wizards predictions

NBA · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 76.0%
Books consensus 76.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit PistonsWashington Wizards
BetMGM -400 +310
BetRivers -400 +295
DraftKings -369 +293
ESPN BET -380 +290
FanDuel -375 +300
Novig -400 +376
Caesars -380 +290

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Pistons −9.5
priced 49.4% to cover · 6 books
Total
O/U 220.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books
Spread by book PistonsWizards
BetMGM −9.5 -110 +9.5 -110
BetRivers −9.5 -115 +9.5 -107
DraftKings −9.5 -106 +9.5 -114
ESPN BET −9.5 -105 +9.5 -115
FanDuel −9.5 -105 +9.5 -115
Caesars −9.5 -108 +9.5 -112
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
BetRivers 220.5 -109 220.5 -113
DraftKings 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
ESPN BET 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
FanDuel 220.5 -114 220.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit PistonsWashington Wizards
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 76.0% 24.0%
Best book price incl. vig 78.7% 21.0%
Kalshi contract price 79.5% 20.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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