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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

MLB · Thursday, July 23, 2026 · 12:16 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 69.5%
Books consensus 69.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Diego PadresAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +900 -2000
BetRivers +900 -5000
DraftKings +850 -2300
ESPN BET +1000 -3500
Fanatics +900 -1800
FanDuel +870 -2200
Hard Rock Bet +650 -1500
Caesars +800 -1600

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Diego PadresAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.5% 69.5%
Best book price incl. vig 9.1% 93.8%
Kalshi contract price 30.5% 70.5%
Polymarket contract price 30.5% 69.5%
Markets average 30.5% 70.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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