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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

MLB · Thursday, July 23, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 66.7%
Books consensus 66.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +185 -225
BetRivers +195 -235
DraftKings +186 -229
ESPN BET +190 -225
Fanatics +185 -230
FanDuel +188 -225
Hard Rock Bet +190 -230
Caesars +192 -235

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.3% 66.7%
Best book price incl. vig 33.9% 69.2%
Kalshi contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Polymarket contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Markets average 32.5% 67.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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