Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 1-2
The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 70.1%
Books consensus 70.1%
Result Detroit Tigers won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +225 | -265 |
| DraftKings | +218 | -272 |
| ESPN BET | +220 | -270 |
| Fanatics | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +225 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +220 | -275 |
| Caesars | +215 | -267 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 30.8% | 72.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| Markets average | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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