Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call

Detroit Tigers to win

Model confidence 70.1%

Books consensus 70.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Kansas City Royals	Detroit Tigers
DraftKings	+194	-240
ESPN BET	+230	-280
Fanatics	+220	-275
FanDuel	+235	-290
Hard Rock Bet	+225	-260

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Kansas City Royals	Detroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	29.9%	70.1%
Best book price incl. vig	29.9%	70.6%
Kalshi contract price	30.0%	69.5%
Polymarket contract price	30.5%	69.5%
Markets average	30.2%	69.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Back to today's board · The full record