San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call

Miami Marlins to win

Model confidence 55.4%

Books consensus 55.4%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Diego Padres	Miami Marlins
DraftKings	+113	-136
ESPN BET	+115	-135
Fanatics	+115	-140
FanDuel	+116	-136
Hard Rock Bet	+115	-140
Caesars	+115	-135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Diego Padres	Miami Marlins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	44.6%	55.4%
Best book price incl. vig	46.3%	57.4%
Kalshi contract price	44.5%	56.5%
Polymarket contract price	43.5%	56.5%
Markets average	44.0%	56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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