San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 4-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +105 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +161 | +1.5 -196 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9 -107 | 9 -113 |
| DraftKings | 9 -113 | 9 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9 -108 | 9 -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 54.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.