Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 10:16 PM · Final: 6-7

The model's call
San Francisco Giants to win
Model confidence 59.1%
Books consensus 59.1%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +138 -157
DraftKings +134 -162
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +136 -162
Hard Rock Bet +135 -165
Caesars +135 -160

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Giants −1.5
priced 40.7% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 48.5% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 8.5 (13 scored)
Spread by book AngelsGiants
BetMGM +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -162 −1.5 +133
DraftKings +1.5 -161 −1.5 +133
ESPN BET +1.5 -165 −1.5 +140
Fanatics +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
FanDuel +1.5 -162 −1.5 +134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -165 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -120 8 +100
BetRivers 8.5 -103 8.5 -117
DraftKings 8 -119 8 -101
ESPN BET 8.5 +100 8.5 -120
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 8.5 -110 8.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -105 8.5 -115
Caesars 8.5 +100 8.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.9% 59.1%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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