Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 1:11 PM

The model's call

Detroit Tigers to win

Model confidence 61.6%

Books consensus 61.6%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Kansas City Royals	Detroit Tigers
DraftKings	+149	-181
ESPN BET	+150	-175
Fanatics	+150	-180
FanDuel	+150	-178
Hard Rock Bet	+145	-175
Caesars	+150	-178

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Kansas City Royals	Detroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	38.4%	61.6%
Best book price incl. vig	40.0%	63.6%
Kalshi contract price	38.0%	62.5%
Polymarket contract price	37.5%	62.5%
Markets average	37.8%	62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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