Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 2-9

The model's call
San Francisco Giants to win
Model confidence 54.9%
Books consensus 54.9%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +114 -130
DraftKings +113 -136
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +110 -130
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Caesars +115 -135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Giants −1.5
priced 38.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
San Francisco Giants covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 50.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 9 (11 scored)
Spread by book AngelsGiants
BetMGM +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
BetRivers +1 -134 −1 +110
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +148
ESPN BET +1.5 -190 −1.5 +160
Fanatics +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
FanDuel +1.5 -184 −1.5 +152
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
Caesars +1.5 -190 −1.5 +158
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -110 9 -110
BetRivers 9 -107 9 -113
DraftKings 9 -111 9 -109
ESPN BET 9.5 +115 9.5 -135
Fanatics 9 -115 9 -105
FanDuel 9 -115 9 -105
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +115 9.5 -135
Caesars 9 -110 9 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.1% 54.9%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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