San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 7-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -148 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -145 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -176 | −1.5 +145 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -192 | −1.5 +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -103 | 8 -117 |
| DraftKings | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 58.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.