San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 4:11 PM

The model's call

Miami Marlins to win

Model confidence 54.7%

Books consensus 54.7%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	San Diego Padres	Miami Marlins
DraftKings	+113	-136
ESPN BET	+110	-130
Fanatics	+115	-140
FanDuel	+110	-130
Hard Rock Bet	+110	-130
Caesars	+115	-135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	San Diego Padres	Miami Marlins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	45.3%	54.7%
Best book price incl. vig	46.5%	56.5%
Kalshi contract price	44.5%	54.5%
Polymarket contract price	44.5%	55.5%
Markets average	44.5%	55.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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