San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 7-2
The model's call
Miami Marlins to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Result San Diego Padres won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -148 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -145 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 58.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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