Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call

Milwaukee Brewers to win

Model confidence 65.8%

Books consensus 65.8%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Colorado Rockies	Milwaukee Brewers
DraftKings	+183	-224
ESPN BET	+180	-215
Fanatics	+180	-220
FanDuel	+180	-215
Hard Rock Bet	+180	-220
Caesars	+185	-225

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Colorado Rockies	Milwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	34.2%	65.8%
Best book price incl. vig	35.1%	68.3%
Kalshi contract price	32.5%	66.5%
Polymarket contract price	33.5%	66.5%
Markets average	33.0%	66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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