Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 5-8

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 67.6%
Books consensus 67.6%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +185 -225
BetRivers +205 -240
DraftKings +198 -244
ESPN BET +195 -230
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +194 -235
Hard Rock Bet +200 -240
Caesars +205 -250

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 51.0% to cover · 8 books
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 52.2% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 9 (13 scored)
Spread by book RockiesBrewers
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -112 −1.5 -109
DraftKings +1.5 -103 −1.5 -117
ESPN BET +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Fanatics +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -105 −1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Caesars +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -120 9 +100
BetRivers 9 -103 9 -118
DraftKings 9 -110 9 -110
ESPN BET 9.5 +110 9.5 -130
Fanatics 9 -120 9 +100
FanDuel 9.5 +104 9.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +110 9.5 -130
Caesars 9 -120 9 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 32.4% 67.6%
Best book price incl. vig 32.8% 69.2%
Kalshi contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Polymarket contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Markets average 32.0% 68.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record