San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 5-3
The model's call
Miami Marlins to win
Model confidence 52.1%
Books consensus 52.1%
Result San Diego Padres won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -118 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -119 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 53.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.