San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 5-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -118 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -119 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +165 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +162 | +1.5 -198 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +164 | +1.5 -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -109 | 8.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -114 | 8.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 53.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.