Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 2-11
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 75.4%
Books consensus 75.4%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +280 | -350 |
| BetRivers | +300 | -360 |
| DraftKings | +290 | -373 |
| ESPN BET | +290 | -380 |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +290 | -360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +285 | -365 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 25.0% | 77.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| Markets average | 24.0% | 76.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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