SATURDAY, JULY 25, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 2:11 PM
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 71.7%
Books consensus 71.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +230 | -285 |
| DraftKings | +231 | -290 |
| ESPN BET | +240 | -290 |
| Fanatics | +240 | -300 |
| FanDuel | +240 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +240 | -300 |
| Caesars | +228 | -285 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 29.4% | 74.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Markets average | 27.0% | 73.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.