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Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 2-11

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 75.4%
Books consensus 75.4%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +280 -350
BetRivers +300 -360
DraftKings +290 -373
ESPN BET +290 -380
Fanatics +290 -375
FanDuel +290 -360
Hard Rock Bet +275 -350
Caesars +285 -365

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 59.3% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
Milwaukee Brewers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 49.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 8 (13 scored)
Spread by book RockiesBrewers
BetMGM +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
BetRivers +1.5 +123 −1.5 -150
DraftKings +1.5 +135 −1.5 -164
ESPN BET +2.5 -120 −2.5 +100
Fanatics +1.5 +135 −1.5 -165
FanDuel +1.5 +134 −1.5 -162
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -120 −2.5 +100
Caesars +1.5 +143 −1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -110 8 -110
BetRivers 8 +100 8 -118
DraftKings 8 -108 8 -112
ESPN BET 7.5 -130 7.5 +110
Fanatics 8 -110 8 -110
FanDuel 8 -108 8 -112
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -125 7.5 +105
Caesars 8 -110 8 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 24.6% 75.4%
Best book price incl. vig 25.0% 77.8%
Kalshi contract price 23.5% 76.5%
Polymarket contract price 24.5% 75.5%
Markets average 24.0% 76.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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