Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:43 PM · Final: 5-4
The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 62.8%
Books consensus 62.8%
Result Kansas City Royals won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +160 | -186 |
| DraftKings | +157 | -192 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -190 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.5% | 65.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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