MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.8% | 42.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 57.5% | 41.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 58.0% | 41.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.