Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 2-3
The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 62.0%
Books consensus 62.0%
Result Minnesota Twins won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.8% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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