Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 7-8
The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 68.0%
Books consensus 68.0%
Result San Diego Padres won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +205 | -240 |
| DraftKings | +198 | -245 |
| ESPN BET | +195 | -230 |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +190 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +210 | -260 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 32.3% | 69.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Markets average | 32.5% | 67.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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