MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 9:46 PM
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 56.2%
Books consensus 56.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -144 | +119 |
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.9% | 45.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.5% | 45.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Markets average | 54.5% | 45.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.