TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 4:11 PM
The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 56.5%
Books consensus 56.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 58.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 42.0% | 58.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.