Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 62.6%
Books consensus 62.6%
Result San Diego Padres won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
BetMGM +154 -190
BetRivers +155 -180
DraftKings +161 -197
ESPN BET +160 -190
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +154 -184
Hard Rock Bet +140 -165
Caesars +158 -190

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.4% 62.6%
Best book price incl. vig 38.3% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 38.1% 61.9%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.8% 62.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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