Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 4-0

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 64.0%
Books consensus 64.0%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +170 -195
DraftKings +169 -206
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +170 -205
FanDuel +166 -198
Hard Rock Bet +160 -200
Caesars +170 -205

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.0% 64.0%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 66.1%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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