TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:41 PM
The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 62.3%
Books consensus 62.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +155 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 39.2% | 64.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.0% | 61.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.