Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions

MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 4-0

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 64.0%
Books consensus 64.0%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +170 -195
DraftKings +169 -206
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +170 -205
FanDuel +166 -198
Hard Rock Bet +160 -200
Caesars +170 -205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Twins −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 8 books
Kansas City Royals covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 48.9% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 9 (4 scored)
Spread by book RoyalsTwins
BetMGM +1.5 -118 −1.5 -102
BetRivers +1.5 -125 −1.5 +104
DraftKings +1.5 -119 −1.5 -101
ESPN BET +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
Fanatics +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
FanDuel +1.5 -126 −1.5 +105
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -105 9 -115
BetRivers 9 +100 9 -118
DraftKings 9 -106 9 -113
ESPN BET 8.5 -135 8.5 +115
Fanatics 9 -105 9 -115
FanDuel 9 -110 9 -110
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -135 8.5 +110
Caesars 9 -105 9 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.0% 64.0%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 66.1%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record