WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 1:41 PM
The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 55.4%
Books consensus 55.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.7% | 57.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.6% | 56.4% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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