San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +143 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +137 | -166 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +128 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +128 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +122 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -117 | 8 -104 |
| DraftKings | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.8% | 61.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.