Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions

MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 60.1%
Books consensus 60.1%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +143 -162
DraftKings +137 -166
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +142 -168
Hard Rock Bet +140 -165
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.9% 60.1%
Best book price incl. vig 40.8% 61.8%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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