Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 63.4%
Books consensus 63.4%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +165 -195
DraftKings +161 -197
ESPN BET +160 -190
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +170 -184
Hard Rock Bet +170 -180
Caesars +162 -195

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.6% 63.4%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 64.3%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Polymarket contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Markets average 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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