THURSDAY, JULY 30, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 8:41 PM
The model's call
Colorado Rockies to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.4% | 51.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.