Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays

All St. Louis Cardinals predictions · All Toronto Blue Jays predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 3:08 PM · Final: 1-5

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +138 -159
DraftKings +147 -179
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +152 -166
Hard Rock Bet +155 -165
Caesars +143 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.2% 61.4%
Kalshi contract price 40.1% 59.9%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.8% 60.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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