Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -143 +125
DraftKings -157 +130
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -146 +136
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -160 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.3% 41.7%
Best book price incl. vig 58.8% 42.4%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 58.0% 42.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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