San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 5-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +128 | -143 |
| DraftKings | +124 | -150 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +138 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -163 | −1.5 +134 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +145 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -106 | 8.5 -114 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -101 | 8.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.7% | 58.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.