Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 58.2%
Books consensus 58.2%
Result San Diego Padres won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +128 -143
DraftKings +124 -150
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +140 -150
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +130 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.8% 58.2%
Best book price incl. vig 41.7% 58.8%
Kalshi contract price 40.9% 59.1%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.7% 59.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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