Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 3:16 PM · Final: 0-3

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 66.5%
Books consensus 66.5%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -225 +185
BetRivers -220 +188
DraftKings -234 +190
ESPN BET -215 +180
Fanatics -225 +185
FanDuel -210 +194
Hard Rock Bet -210 +200
Caesars -235 +192

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Brewers −1.5
priced 54.3% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Under 7.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book BrewersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 -140 +1.5 +115
BetRivers −1.5 -129 +1.5 +106
DraftKings −1.5 -137 +1.5 +113
ESPN BET −1.5 -130 +1.5 +110
Fanatics −1.5 -125 +1.5 +105
FanDuel −1.5 -125 +1.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -125 +1.5 +115
Caesars −1.5 -130 +1.5 +110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -102 7.5 -118
BetRivers 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
DraftKings 7.5 -102 7.5 -118
ESPN BET 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
Fanatics 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
FanDuel 7.5 -102 7.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +105 7.5 -115
Caesars 7.5 +100 7.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 66.5% 33.5%
Best book price incl. vig 67.7% 33.3%
Kalshi contract price 67.5% 32.5%
Polymarket contract price 67.5% 32.5%
Markets average 67.5% 32.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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