Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 53.5%
Books consensus 53.5%
Result San Diego Padres won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +105 -120
DraftKings +109 -131
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +112 -122
Hard Rock Bet +110 -120
Caesars +114 -124

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.5% 53.5%
Best book price incl. vig 46.7% 54.5%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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