San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 4-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +105 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +112 | -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +114 | -124 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +163 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -198 | −1.5 +162 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +175 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -104 | 8 -115 |
| DraftKings | 8 -107 | 8 -113 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -114 | 8 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.7% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.