Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 2-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +123 |
| DraftKings | -147 | +138 |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -140 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -145 | +135 |
| Caesars | -145 | +135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +112 | +1.5 -136 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +104 | +1.5 -125 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +112 | +1.5 -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -125 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9 -121 | 9 +102 |
| DraftKings | 9 -117 | 9 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +102 | 9.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.2% | 42.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Markets average | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.