Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 2-8

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 57.6%
Books consensus 57.6%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -139 +123
DraftKings -147 +138
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -140 +130
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -145 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.6% 42.4%
Best book price incl. vig 58.2% 42.0%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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