Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +128 | -143 |
| DraftKings | +137 | -146 |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +132 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -150 |
| Caesars | +135 | -145 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +140 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +129 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -166 | −1.5 +138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| DraftKings | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -120 | 9 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.7% | 58.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.