San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 4-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +165 | -190 |
| DraftKings | +175 | -187 |
| ESPN BET | +165 | -195 |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +176 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -190 |
| Caesars | +170 | -190 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -134 | −1.5 +110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -132 | −1.5 +109 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -134 | −1.5 +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -106 | 8 -114 |
| DraftKings | 8 -108 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.7% | 65.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.1% | 64.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Markets average | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.