Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers

All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco GiantsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +165 -190
DraftKings +175 -187
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +176 -190
Hard Rock Bet +180 -190
Caesars +170 -190

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco GiantsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.1% 63.9%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 65.2%
Kalshi contract price 35.1% 64.8%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.3% 64.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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