San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 9-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -117 |
| DraftKings | +111 | -118 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +112 | -122 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -215 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -193 | −1.5 +158 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -121 | 8.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 +100 | 9 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +115 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.2% | 53.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.