Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Kansas City Royals predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 1-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +106 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +107 | -113 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Twins | Royals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -220 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +162 | +1.5 -198 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +164 | +1.5 -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -121 | 8.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.3% | 53.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.