San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-10
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -136 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -128 | +120 |
| ESPN BET | -136 | +121 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -132 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -135 | +125 |
| Caesars | -135 | +125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -145 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +123 | +1.5 -150 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +119 | +1.5 -144 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -150 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -140 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +114 | +1.5 -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -135 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -112 | 8.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -111 | 8.5 -109 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.1% | 44.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Markets average | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.