San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 9:41 PM
The model's call
San Diego Padres to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -109 | -109 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -111 | +101 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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