Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-11
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +151 | -162 |
| ESPN BET | +143 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +150 | -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -165 |
| Caesars | +154 | -164 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -148 | −1.5 +120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -144 | −1.5 +119 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| BetRivers | 9 -107 | 9 -113 |
| DraftKings | 9 -106 | 9 -113 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +120 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 39.2% | 61.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.