San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 5-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -108 | -109 |
| DraftKings | -106 | -101 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -108 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -105 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -186 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +149 | +1.5 -181 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -182 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -165 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9 -115 | 9 -103 |
| DraftKings | 9 -112 | 9 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9 -114 | 9 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +120 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.2% | 49.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.