Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Miami Marlins to win
Model confidence 58.1%
Books consensus 58.1%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsMiami Marlins
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +128 -148
DraftKings +137 -147
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +136 -146
Hard Rock Bet +135 -145
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsMiami Marlins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.9% 58.1%
Best book price incl. vig 42.2% 59.2%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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