Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins
All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 4-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Los Angeles Angels | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +128 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +137 | -147 |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +136 | -146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
| Caesars | +135 | -145 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Angels | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +138 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -158 | −1.5 +131 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -166 | −1.5 +138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -103 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -124 | 8.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Los Angeles Angels | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.2% | 59.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.