Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 62.0%
Books consensus 62.0%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM -190 +154
BetRivers -175 +150
DraftKings -174 +162
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -172 +158
Hard Rock Bet -170 +160
Caesars -182 +167

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.0% 38.0%
Best book price incl. vig 63.0% 37.5%
Kalshi contract price 61.9% 38.1%
Polymarket contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Markets average 61.7% 38.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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