Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 9:41 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 61.9%
Books consensus 61.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -185 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -182 | +155 |
| DraftKings | -171 | +159 |
| ESPN BET | -175 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -168 | +156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +160 |
| Caesars | -172 | +157 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.7% | 38.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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