Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 10:16 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 57.3%
Books consensus 57.3%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -137 +120
DraftKings -141 +131
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -140 +130
Hard Rock Bet -140 +130
Caesars -140 +130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.3% 42.7%
Best book price incl. vig 57.8% 43.3%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Polymarket contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Markets average 57.0% 43.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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