Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 10:16 PM

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 54.7%
Books consensus 54.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -127 +108
DraftKings -128 +119
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -126 +116
Hard Rock Bet -125 +115
Caesars -135 +115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.7% 45.3%
Best book price incl. vig 55.6% 45.7%
Kalshi contract price 54.9% 45.1%
Polymarket contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Markets average 54.7% 45.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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