Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 8-6

The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Colorado Rockies won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +140 -159
DraftKings +143 -154
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +142 -154
Hard Rock Bet +140 -150
Caesars +143 -153

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.6% 59.4%
Best book price incl. vig 41.2% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record