Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 8-0

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -112 -103
DraftKings -114 +106
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 +108
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -115 +105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Tigers −1.5
priced 39.7% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Tigers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 51.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Push at 8
Spread by book TigersGiants
BetMGM −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
BetRivers −1.5 +145 +1.5 -177
DraftKings −1.5 +141 +1.5 -171
ESPN BET −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +140 +1.5 -170
FanDuel −1.5 +134 +1.5 -162
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +150 +1.5 -160
Caesars −1.5 +140 +1.5 -165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 8 -108 8 -112
DraftKings 8 -114 8 -105
ESPN BET 8.5 +110 8.5 -130
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 8 -110 8 -110
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +110 8.5 -120
Caesars 8 -115 8 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.8% 48.1%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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