Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 8:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -173 | +143 |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -178 | +150 |
| Caesars | -157 | +147 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 61.1% | 40.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.