Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 64.3%
Books consensus 64.3%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM -210 +170
BetRivers -195 +170
DraftKings -192 +178
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -205 +170
FanDuel -184 +170
Hard Rock Bet -185 +175
Caesars -203 +183

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 64.3% 35.7%
Best book price incl. vig 64.8% 35.3%
Kalshi contract price 64.5% 35.5%
Polymarket contract price 64.5% 35.5%
Markets average 64.5% 35.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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