Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 2:10 PM

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 68.0%
Books consensus 68.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
DraftKings +199 -246
ESPN BET +200 -240
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +194 -235
Hard Rock Bet +220 -230
Caesars +205 -250

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 32.0% 68.0%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 69.7%
Kalshi contract price 29.8% 70.2%
Polymarket contract price 31.5% 68.5%
Markets average 30.6% 69.4%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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