Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 2:10 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 70.3%
Books consensus 70.3%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +225 -265
DraftKings +238 -258
ESPN BET +220 -270
Fanatics +220 -275
FanDuel +235 -260
Hard Rock Bet +250 -260
Caesars +230 -260

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.7% 70.3%
Best book price incl. vig 28.6% 72.1%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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