Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 2:15 PM
The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 60.1%
Books consensus 60.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +138 | -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -160 |
| Caesars | +147 | -157 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 61.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.